El Nino in 2009
The current La Nina pattern in the tropical Pacific is fading slowly. While Nada Nina will dominate much of the remainder of 2008, an El Nino pattern is birthing.


/Farming News Articles/ - March 01, 2008 - Since 1980, there have been more El Nino ( warm water) events than La Nina (cool water) events in the tropical Pacific. Also, the warm water (El Nino) events have tended to be both stronger and longer than the cool water (La Nina) events.

The cool water event that began from the December 2006 peak was expected to follow that trend pattern, but, it's now early in 2008 and the La Nina pattern that has been in full bloom throughout much of 2007 is just now showing signs of fading. Waters along the Peruvian coast are now finally showing signs of warming, and as warm water upwells westward along the equator, a birthing El Nino event will be unfolding throughout the 2008 growing season and into 2009. 2008-2009 should be considered the heart of the emerging full blown El Nino event, and it could linger through 2010.

The Dynamic Predictables Nino3 region sea surface temperature (SST) prediction has been available to the public since 1998. The prediction has been alone remarkable in achieved accuracy over this almost ten year period. The science of Dynamic Predictables ENSO prediction is its own story, but the consequences, partially driven by ENSO, are of more immediate importance to people and their places.

The geographic weather impacts of ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) can have significant differences across the polar hemispheres, but there is little argument that the Southern Hemisphere will be most vulnerable to the negative impacts of an active El Nino pattern, beginning with increased drought potential.

There are also important implications in the Northern hemisphere, especially along the southwestern seaboard and along the Gulf coast of North America. Many observers note that El Nino frequently spells more moisture for the US, generally good for crop yield potentials but sometimes detrimental for quality , but observers typically note significant regional differences.

Similarly an El Nino that is positive for agricultural crop production may well pose dangers for coastal California residents where a more southern storm track can wash home sites to the sea. The financial industry then stands to experience the consequences if catastrophic property loss ripple through bond, insurance and reinsurance markets. So the agricultural production consequences and property risk realities are sometimes at odds depending on the region and timing. The certainty is change and change-associated risk. In these times, even basic economic and social stability can be at stake on a country-by-country and even global basis.

Focusing further on agriculture, crop prices for the 2008 Northern hemispheric season are already elevated. Will the bubble burst or can current levels be sustained through the season? More importantly, whether they collapse or hold, weather will play an even bigger role in 2009 and 2010, especially for the crop seasons in the Southern Hemisphere.

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Al Peterlin
Dynamic Predictables
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